The 2026 midterm elections are fast approaching, and the Republican Party is making a strong play on immigration as a key campaign issue. Despite a rocky start to the year for messaging on President Biden's immigration policies, Republicans are spending more money and running more ads than Democrats on the topic. This strategy is particularly evident in the primary season, where campaigns are testing out issues that might resonate with voters in the general election. According to AdImpact data, between January and June, Republicans outspent Democrats on immigration-related political advertising by about $36 million. Republican ads focused on immigration have aired across the country in 88 races and 27 states, while Democratic ads have been more limited to states with increased immigration enforcement action, such as California, New York, and Illinois.
One of the most expensive ads, costing $928,000, was run by Republican candidate Perry Johnson in the Michigan governor's race, criticizing the use of tax dollars to provide benefits to illegal immigrants. This aligns with the broader Republican strategy of linking immigration to issues like border security, crime, and the economy. For example, Zach Lahn, the GOP primary bid winner for Iowa governor, spent $475,000 on an ad vowing to ban H-1B visa holders from being hired by Iowa government agencies and universities.
In contrast, Democratic ads tend to shy away from specific policy proposals and instead focus on personal connections to immigration, proposals to limit enforcement, and general pro-immigrant statements. This shift in strategy comes after a rough few years for the Biden administration on immigration, with Democrats finding their voice on the issue. However, a Gallup poll released in July shows that most Americans support some form of pathway to citizenship rather than a blanket deportation policy, with sharp differences by party.
The focus on immigration is not just about winning over voters but also about setting the agenda and energizing the party's base. Republican candidates have a large menu of issues they believe are popular amongst voters, and immigration intersects with each of them. The most effective message depends on the district and how those issues are affecting that particular community.
Despite the heavy focus on immigration, strategists caution against reading too much into advertisements to gauge party strategy. With so many diverse streams of information arriving to people on their phones, the impact of ads is less significant than it once was. Interviews, debates, and other forms of public statements are not captured in the ad data, making it a complex and nuanced issue to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.
